Euro approaches three-week high amid bullish outlook

Euro rose in European trade on Monday against a basket of major rivals, maintaining gains for the fourth straight session against the dollar and approaching three-week highs, as analysts expect more gains above the psychological barrier of $1.08 as concerns about a widening US-Eurozone interest rate gap recede. 

Recent European developments indicate the ECB will likely avoid a rush towards cutting interest rates this year, while recent US labor data underpinned forecasts of two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, at least.

The Price 

EUR/USD rose 0.15% to $1.0772, with a session-low at $1.0755, after climbing 0.3% on Friday, the third profit in a row, marking a three-week high at $1.0812 following weak US jobs data. 

The pair rose 0.6% last week, the third weekly profit in a row as risk appetite improved in the global markets.

European Rates

The markets are now prepared for a likely 0.25% interest rate cut in June by the European Central Bank, which has already been priced in. 

Now investors are looking for clues on the likely path ahead for monetary policy following June, and the expected pace of policy easing this year. 

US Jobs Data

Recent US payrolls data missed expectations, in turn reducing pressures on the Fed and boosting the odds of two interest rate cuts this year, maybe in September and November. 

Goldman Sachs’ economists maintained their previous forecasts for US interest rates, estimating the first Fed rate cut in July, then November. 

Interest Rate Gap

The current US-Eurozone interest rate gap stands at 100 basis points, and could widen to 125 basis points in June in favor of US rates, however such a change has been priced in already for the EUR/USD.